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Subscription Churn Prediction Sample Guide(Rule Based Approach)

This guide will walk you through an end to end example of subscription Churn prediction in Insights using the data provided below. All data used in this guide is not real customer data and is a part of the Contoso dataset found in the SalesDemo instance.

Step 1 - Import Customer & Online Purchase Data​

Follow the steps below to import customer data from eCommerce platform:

  1. Create a dataflow named eCommerce, and choose the Azure Data Lake Gen 2 connector.
  2. Enter the credentials for the storage account where the csv files are stored and click on connect. Select the two eCommerce customer data and online purchase data in csv files.
  3. Then, first click on the file named eCommerceContacts.csv and you will see a preview field table pop up on the screen.

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  1. Update the datatype for the columns listed below:
    • DateOfBirth : Date
    • CreatedOn : DateTime
  2. Then, click on the file named eCommercePurchases.csv and you will see a preview field table pop up on the screen.
  3. Update the datatype for the columsn listed below:
    • PurchasedOn : DateTime
    • TotalPrice : Int64
  4. Select the datetime format for both the files as 11/25/1979.
  5. Click on Save and then run it by clicking on the three dot button and selecting Run.

Step 2 - Import Loyalty Data​

Follow the steps below to import the loyalty data from eCommerce platform:

  1. Create a dataflow named loyalty, and choose the Azure Data Lake Gen 2 connector.
  2. Enter the credentials for the storage account where the csv files are stored and click on connect. Select the loyalty data.
  3. Then click on the file named loyaltyCustomerData.csv and you will see a preview field table pop up on the screen.
  4. Update the datatype for the columns listed below:
    • DateOfBirth : Date
    • RewardsPoints : Int64
    • CreatedOn : DateTime
  5. Select the datetime format for both the files as 11/25/1979.
  6. Click on Save and then run it by clicking on the three dot button and selecting Run.

Step 3 - Stitch Process : Map​

  1. After importing the data, we now begin the Map process in the stitch section of our platform as the first step to create a customer profile.
  2. Navigate to Stitch > Map and click on Select Entities.
  3. Select the eCommerce Contacts Data entity and eCommerce Loyalty Data entity.
  4. Click on contacts entity and complete the mapping for the various required fields.

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  1. Click on loyalty data entity and complete the mapping for the various required fields.

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  1. Click on Save and after the UI shows Saved successfully, click on Run to start the map process.

Step 4 - Stitch Process : Rule Match​

  1. After running the map stage of the stitch process, navigate to Stitch > Rule Match.
  2. Click on Set Order and select the entities namely eCommerceContacts and loyaltydata. Select the option of Include All Records.
  3. Then, click on Need Rules and then click on Create Rule.
  4. Fill in the details of the condition as below:

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  1. Then click on Save and after the UI shows Saved successfully, click on Run to start the Rule Match process.
  2. Once the Rule Match is done, you will be able to see the number of unique records and many other numerical representations of the output of the Rule match.

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Step 5 - Stitch Process : Rule Merge​

  1. After running the map and Rule match, navigate to Stitch > Rule Merge.
  2. Click on Save and after the UI shows Saved successfully, click on Run to start the Rule Match process.
  3. Once Rule Merge is done, go to the home page and look at the dashboard. You will be able to see the profile count.
  4. To check the profiles, navigate to Insights > Profiles.

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Step 6 - Create a Subscription Churn Prediction Model​

With the stitch process done, we can run the subscription churn prediction. Below are the necessary steps required to run the prediction.

  1. Go to Insights > Predictions and select to use the Customer Churn Model.

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  1. Select the subscription option and select Get Started

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  1. Name the model and the output entity.

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  1. Define two conditions for the churn model:

    • Enter the number of Days since subscription ended that your business considers a customer to be in a churned state. This period is typically liked to business activities like offers or other marketing efforts trying to prevent losing the customer.
    • Enter the number of Days to look into future to predict churn to set a window to predict churn for. For example, to predict the risk of churn for your customers over the next 90 days to align to your marketing retention efforts. Predicting churn risk for longer or shorter periods of time can make it more difficult to address the factors in your churn risk profile, but this is highly dependent on your specific business requirements. Select Next to continue

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  2. Select Subscription history(required) and select Add Data for subscription history.

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  1. Add the subscription history data entity and map the fields to the corresponding fields required by the model.

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  1. Add the customer activity data entity and map the fields to the corresponding fields required by the model.

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  1. Select Next to set the model schedule. The model needs to train regularly to learn new patterns when there is new data ingested.

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  1. After reviewing all the details, select Save And Run.

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  1. When the model is completely run, you will be able to see your model in the My Predictions section. Post completion, an entity will also be created with type Intelligence containing the predictions.

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